Getting a new customer is great. Getting a new customer that becomes a repeat customer is even better. When a customer makes a repeat purchase, a marketer needs to consider how to attribute the credit for the future sales back to the marketing that was used to acquire the customer in the first place. Should the original ad(s) that acquired the customer get any credit for future sales? Should the original ad(s) only get credit for the first sale? What if the second product purchased was related to the first product purchased, would that change the attribution model a marketer would use?

During the Attribution Management Forum 2.0 (AMF) on Jan 29th, 2009, we posed that question to an audience of hundreds of senior online marketers and asked them to vote on the attribution model they would use in the following scenario:

In this scenario a consumer clicked on a PPC ad on Monday and the next day purchased peanut butter from that site. A little over a week later they clicked on another PPC ad and the next day purchased jelly from that same site.

We provided the audience with 3 attribution models they could choose from. They were as follows:

If you voted for:

A) You believe the first search should get credit for the sale of the peanut butter and jelly because the 2 products bought are so closely related, the first search should get credit for the sale of the jelly as well.

B) You believe the first search gets credit for the first sale and a percentage of the credit for the next sale as well. The second search also deserves a portion of the credit for the second sale.

C) You do not believe in lifetime ad value (LAV) and think that each search gets credit for only the sale that directly follows it.

In almost all of the groups polled, over 60% chose attribution rule B, which favors giving credit for the sale of jelly to the first and second ads. The exact percentage breakdowns were not chosen in this exercise.

When looking at this scenario there are a few other factors that one should consider. One factor is the type of search ad that was clicked on prior to the sale of jelly. For example, if it was a branded term, I believe more people would have opted to give full credit for the sale of jelly back to the first ad. The logic for doing this is that this customer chose search as their preferred method to navigate back to the site that they originally bought peanut butter from vs. using the address bar, an organic result, or a bookmark.

Another factor that might change the way people voted is if they knew the second search was for “jelly”, which is a general search term. The use of a general search might be an indicator that the consumer was not thinking of the company they purchased peanut butter from at all. Therefore, if they did not have that company in mind when they did the search for jelly, perhaps all of the credit for the second sale should go to the second ad.

In AMF 1.0, we presented a similar scenario but did not show the type of products that were sold. In that forum, the majority of the audience still chose to attribute some credit for the second sale back to the original ad. I would have thought knowing the sale of the second product was complimentary to the sale of the first product would have made more people opt to give all of the credit to the first ad.

These types of scenarios and rules are why we continue to strive to generate some consensus around Attribution Management. If you would like to learn more about these scenarios or the scenarios from the previous Forum, please visit www.AttributionManagement.com. Additionally, we love to hear from our audience, so please fill us in on what your thoughts about this scenario may be.

In this Purchase Path, a consumer did a search on a Monday and bought some peanut butter. Then a week later, they did another search and bought a complimentary product, jelly. Which search gets credit for the sales?

1. In Attribution Rule A, you believe the first search should get credit for the sale of the peanut butter. However because the 2 products bought are so closely related, the first search should get credit for the sale of the jelly also.
2. In Attribution Rule B, the first search gets credit for the first sale and a percentage of the credit for the next sale as well. The second search also deserves a portion of the credit, but not as much as the first.
3. In Attribution Rule C, you do not believe in lifetime ad value and think that each search gets credit for only the sale that directly follows it.

See how other Forum attendees voted

In this purchase path, there are 3 searches. First there is a search for “Running shoes”. A Finish Line ad gets clicked on, but there is no purchase. The search is then refined to “Women’s Nike Shox”, again the consumer clicks on a Finish Line ad, but does not make a purchase. Then, they search “Finish Line” (a branded term), they click on the link, and a sale occurs. However this time the product that was purchased was a pair of Oakley women’s sunglasses. The product purchased was different than the product that was previously searched for.

1. In Attribution Rule A, there were 3 ads involved before the sale. Regardless of what product was purchased, all 3 ads contributed and therefore deserve equal credit for the sale.
2. In Attribution Rule B, the product sold does not matter. However when a branded term is used at the end of a path, it is being used to navigate back to the Finish Line. The customer could’ve found the Finish Line through the address bar or bookmark, however they choose to use search again. In this instance the consumer has already decided to buy and therefore no sales credit goes back to the branded term at the end of a Purchase Path. Credit for the sale is split evenly between the first and second search.
3. In Attribution Rule C, the purchase has nothing to do with what they searched for. Therefore credit is excluded from the terms that do not relate to the product bought. All of the credit of the sale is attributed to the final ad for “Finish Line”

See how other Forum attendees voted

In this Purchase Path a search was done and on the same day a purchase was made. Over a week later another search was done and a purchase followed 2 days later. Less than a week later, another purchase was made. If both searches are a crucial part of the sale, which one deserves more credit for the second sale- the first search or the second search?

1. In Attribution Rule A, the first search deserves more credit for the sales
2. In Attribution Rule B, the second search deserves more credit for the sales

See how other Forum attendees voted

In this Purchase Path, on January 1, someone did a search for running shoes and clicked on a sponsored link for Finish Line. Then, two weeks later they did a more refined search and looked up Nike Women’s Shox. They didn’t purchase this time, but instead clicked on a Finish Line Sponsored link. Two weeks after this, on January 30, they searched Nike Shox Turbo VII, clicked on the Finish Line sponsored link, and this time they completed the purchase.

1. In Attribution Rule A, all ads are equally important to the sale and were each a crucial part of the purchase process. Therefore the credit is split evenly among the 3 search ads
2. In Attribution Rule B, the first ad is the most important. Without that first ad, the consumer might not have discovered Finish Line after the second and third search. If Finish Line didn’t not show up for the very general term “running shoes”, they might not have been included in their consideration set.
3. In Attribution Rule C, the last ad before the conversion gets all the credit. This could be due to the fact that the searches occurred over a month and you believe that too much time elapsed between the searches and therefore only the last ad clicked before the purchase is relevant.

See how other Forum attendees voted